Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

A “load-carrier” perspective approach for assessing tourism resource carrying capacity

To address the challenge of global tourism resources being overloaded or underutilization, there requires an adequate method for assessing the tourism resource carrying capacity (TRCC). However, the majority of previous evaluation perspectives on TRCC are limited by thresholds. This paper develops an innovative approach for assessing TRCC from the “load-carrier” perspective. TRCC is assessed by exploring the interaction between the carriers and loads of tourism resources. Chongqing city in China is employed as the case city to demonstrate the application of the established TRCC method. The conclusions are as follows: 1) This study elaborates the new connotation of TRCC from the perspective of “load-carrier”, and establishes the TRCC evaluation system based on the dynamic relationship between the carrier and load of tourism resources. 2) The proposed TRCC evaluation method is proved effective through an empirical study of Chongqing. 3) Chongqing's case unveils that the overload performance of TRCC can be dynamically monitored and predicted. By applying the TRCC evaluation methodology developed in this study, tourism managers and policymakers can identify whether it is the load or the carrier of tourism resources that affect the performance of TRCC, thereby taking targeted policy measures to eliminate potential risks of overload or underutilization.     

数字经济时代会计变革及对策

随着数字经济时代的来临，以人工智能技术为代表的现代信息技术越来越多地应用到会计工作中，会计工作将进入数字会计时代，向共享会计、管理会计、智能会计发展。为了适应数字经济带来的变化，会计机构要成为企业的“数据中心”，发挥管理和服务职能。会计人员要积极学习现代信息技术和管理知识，实现由核算型向管理型转型。     

Electoral uncertainty and financial volatility: Evidence from two‐round presidential races in emerging markets

We study how the predictability and the decisiveness of electoral outcomes affect financial volatility. We argue that traders’ optimal investment strategies depend on their ability to make accurate electoral forecasts and the prospective losses associated with placing a bet on the wrong candidate. Using a triple difference‐in‐difference approach and data from two‐round presidential elections in five Latin American countries between 1999 and 2018, we find that financial volatility is greatest in the days immediately following unpredictable, decisive, elections. Postelectoral volatility also occurs following predictable, indecisive elections. The effect of learning the identity of the winning candidate on financial volatility is null when the election is unpredictable and indecisive, as well as when the election is decisive, but the outcome is predictable. These findings offer insights into investors seeking to hedge price risk around elections. They also have important implications regarding the relationship between public opinion polls and postelectoral financial volatility.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Pursuing your leader development: Lessons from 101 executives

To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.     

Solesolevaki as social capital: a tale of a village,two tribes,and a resort in Fiji

This paper advances understanding of the complex and adaptive nature of indigenous Fijian communities involved in tourism. It examines how tourism-related development has set the people of one Fijian village along two separate development pathways, and explores how preferential access to tourism benefits has created disparities within the community. Complex Adaptive Systems theory and Social Capital theory are used to conceptualise how over 40 years of tourism involvement has influenced development within an indigenous Fijian community. The findings argue that indigenous Fijian communities are non-homogeneous entities, which are constantly in transition, responding and adapting integratively to both internal and external changes over time. The findings show that the emergence of new behaviours and ways of life has led to the collapse of the pre-existing systems of social capital. As a response, community members retreated and regrouped, strengthening internal bonds and social capital in their smaller social units, leading to both dependency and opportunity-seeking behaviours among participants. Ultimately, the paper asserts that money alone does not lead to development, but rather tourism and access to a variety of capital do.     

中国农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩状态：时空特征与影响因素

[目的]明确农药施用与农业经济增长关联状态及其影响因素,为实现"控药减害增收"的目标提供借鉴。[方法]基于2005—2015年数据利用脱钩理论和对数平均分解指数法分解进行分析。[结果]中国农业经济增长伴生大量农药施用,仅少数省域表现出农药施用和农业经济增长扩张绝对脱钩的理想状态,东北西北部分省域农业经济增长则以更大幅度的农药投入增长为代价。中西部地区劳动力规模和技术进步效应是推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东部地区种植规模变化、劳动力规模和技术进步因素均是推动农药施用和农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东北地区仅劳动力规模效应成为推动脱钩的力量。[结论]推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩需要强化农业科技的创新与普及,完善农业生产过程中的技术支撑,推动农业病虫害监测预警,加大对环境友好型低污染农药和肥料的推广度;构建农户施药的多重约束机制,完善农业病虫灾害保险减少农户对生产过程的风险感知,发挥农业合作社对农户施药行为的规制作用,完善产品分级认证和安全准入制度;通过农地合理流转和农业机械化等方式集约利用农业生产资源;因地制宜推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩,结合区域资源优势和农业发展阶段有针对性地设计对策措施。     

面源污染视角下江西省耕地利用效率研究

[目的]在面源污染视角下考察耕地利用效率,可以为推动耕地可持续利用提供理论和参考依据。[方法]文章基于2000—2014年我国13个粮食主产省(区)耕地投入产出的面板数据,运用SBM方向性距离函数将耕地面源污染因素纳入到传统的效率分析框架,从省际比较的维度对江西省耕地利用效率进行了测度与分析。[结果]考虑面源污染因素对耕地利用效率测算产生了一定的影响;江西省耕地利用效率值呈现阶段性特征,耕地利用效率排名比较稳定,近年来排名有上升趋势;江西省耕地利用绩效一般,且与最佳实践者存在较大的差距。[结论]忽视面源污染因素的耕地利用效率评估是失真和不符合实际的,宜将面源污染因素纳入到耕地利用效率的测度框架,以此来更科学地量化评估耕地利用绩效;设计和完善相关政策,以有效控制耕地面源污染;加强与先进省(区)的交流与合作,学习其农业可持续耕作技术与管理经验,进一步推动江西省耕地产出与资源、环境协调发展。     

基于循环经济的绍兴休闲观光农业发展研究

［目的］休闲观光农业建设是绍兴市产业转型升级的关键一步，探寻休闲观光农业新模式，能够为休闲农业发展提供理论参考。［方法］文章采用变异系数法确定指标权重，多因素综合分析法测算观光农业发展水平，从循环经济角度出发，评价2001—2016年绍兴市休闲观光农业发展可持续性，提出发展中存在的问题并探索循环型的休闲观光农业新模式。［结果］（1）2001—2016年以来，经济发展可持续性得分较高，资源环境可持续得分次之，循环经济可持续发展偏低。（2）现阶段绍兴市休闲观光农业发展主要存在休闲观光农业自然环境不断遭到破坏，休闲观光农业缺乏整体规划，休闲观光农业旅游支撑体系不够健全等问题。（3）未来发展中，循环经济发展下的休闲观光农业可以开发建设时空复合循环型、资源综合利用循环型、能量多级利用循环型、综合开发利用循环型等4种模式。［结论］未来绍兴市应将循环经济的理念融入到休闲观光农业中，因地制宜，科学选择循环型休闲观光农业发展模式； 规划先行，科学利用农业旅游资源； 强化保障，建立休闲观光农业支撑体系，全面推动休闲观光农业健康持续发展。